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Mesoscale Discussion 110
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2020

   Areas affected...North-Central and Northeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 090146Z - 090545Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 1+ inches per hour likely this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...A compact mid-level short-wave trough is progressing
   eastward through central South Dakota, with pronounced low-level
   theta-e advection. Consequently, steepening mid-level lapse rates
   and low-level (850-700 mb) frontogenesis is occurring across
   portions of north-central and northeast South Dakota. Regional radar
   shows an elongated snowband developing in association with this
   mesoscale forcing for ascent, from central to southeast South
   Dakota, with light to moderate occurring and some higher
   reflectivity returns evident on the most recent scans.

   The latest high-resolution guidance indicates continued expansion
   and intensification of this snowband, which should pivot northward
   with time and become quasi-stationary later this evening across
   north-central and northeast South Dakota. Heavy snow, with rates of
   1+ inches per hour, is likely to develop through mid to late
   evening. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for continued
   strong low-level theta-e advection that may result in mid-level
   destabilization through the dendtric layer, and thus potential for
   thundersnow. Should this occur, locally higher snowfall rates of 2+
   inches per hour are possible.

   ..Karstens.. 02/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45469975 45040047 44550020 44209909 44069708 44379649
               44999665 45319757 45519888 45469975 

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Page last modified: February 09, 2020
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