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Mesoscale Discussion 115
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MD 115 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1008 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast TX...Far Southwest AR...Far Northwest LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110408Z - 110615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some isolated hail is possible tonight across portions of
   northeast TX, far southwest AR, and far northwest AR.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central TX
   with a warm front arcing east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex.
   Cooling cloud tops have been noted within the IR imagery across
   northeast TX region during the past two hours and recent regional
   radar imagery has shown quick development over the area. 00Z FWD and
   SHV soundings sampled a steep lapse rate environment (i.e. around
   7.0 degree C per km) and MUCAPE over 1800 J/kg. Current mesoanalysis
   suggests this environment still exists over the region and that
   continued warm-air advection into the frontal zone is expected to
   result in increased thunderstorm coverage. Strong vertical shear was
   also sampled by the 00Z soundings (i.e. effective shear over 50 kt).

   There is some uncertainty regarding short-term storm coverage, given
   that the region is on the far southwest edge of the shortwave trough
   progressing through the Ozark Plateau and forcing for ascent is
   currently modest. However, storms should increase along the front
   tonight and given the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic
   environment, the potential for severe hail exists and trends will be
   monitored for potential watch issuance. Low confidence in the
   overall scenario currently precludes higher watch probabilities.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33429610 33629513 33279335 32639303 32269385 32719621

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