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Mesoscale Discussion 123
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0123
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020

   Areas affected...central South Carolina through central North

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131529Z - 131630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts accompanying a line of showers
   may persist through the central Carolinas into mid afternoon.
   Coverage of severe events are expected to remain somewhat sparse,
   but trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of showers with occasional bowing
   segments extends from west central NC through west central SC moving
   east at around 35 kt. The showers are embedded within a strong
   kinematic environment with VWP data from Columbia showing 60 kt at 1
   km. A positive-tilt upper trough is lagging the warm sector which is
   still under the influence of a subtropical ridge. This has resulted
   in very weak (4.5-5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and instability
   (200-400 J/kg MLCAPE). A slight increase in intensity might occur
   into early afternoon as the boundary layer warms, but a significant
   increase is not expected. Moreover, tendency will be for winds in
   the 1-2 km layer to decrease as the core of the low-level jet shifts
   northeast and away from the warm sector. Nevertheless, given 50+ kt
   just off the surface, precipitation drag and downward momentum
   transfer within the narrow, shallow convective line might be
   sufficient to produce a few strong to damaging gusts.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 02/13/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33728183 34588101 35208051 35667913 35807836 35257816
               34717866 33907989 33278134 33728183 

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