|Mesoscale Discussion 123|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2020
Areas affected...central South Carolina through central North
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131529Z - 131630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts accompanying a line of showers
may persist through the central Carolinas into mid afternoon.
Coverage of severe events are expected to remain somewhat sparse,
but trends are being monitored for a possible WW.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of showers with occasional bowing
segments extends from west central NC through west central SC moving
east at around 35 kt. The showers are embedded within a strong
kinematic environment with VWP data from Columbia showing 60 kt at 1
km. A positive-tilt upper trough is lagging the warm sector which is
still under the influence of a subtropical ridge. This has resulted
in very weak (4.5-5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and instability
(200-400 J/kg MLCAPE). A slight increase in intensity might occur
into early afternoon as the boundary layer warms, but a significant
increase is not expected. Moreover, tendency will be for winds in
the 1-2 km layer to decrease as the core of the low-level jet shifts
northeast and away from the warm sector. Nevertheless, given 50+ kt
just off the surface, precipitation drag and downward momentum
transfer within the narrow, shallow convective line might be
sufficient to produce a few strong to damaging gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33728183 34588101 35208051 35667913 35807836 35257816
34717866 33907989 33278134 33728183
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