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Mesoscale Discussion 125
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of far northeast TX and northern LA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16...17...

   Valid 111520Z - 111645Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16, 17

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain the primary severe threat
   with elevated supercells this morning, but occasional strong/severe
   winds may also occur.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of elevated supercells will continue to move
   eastward over far northeast TX and northern LA over the next couple
   of hours. Even though MUCAPE remains fairly modest, generally
   500-1000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis, ample cloud-layer shear with
   long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels is easily supporting
   continued supercell intensity. Large hail, potentially up to 2-2.5
   inches in diameter, will remain the primary severe hazard this
   morning given the tendency for this severe convection to remain
   elevated well to the north of a surface boundary draped across
   southeast TX into central LA. Even so, a recent wind gust to 59 mph
   was measured at KSHV with the northern-most supercell. Occasional
   strong to severe winds may occur with the more intense downdrafts
   able to penetrate the near-surface stable layer.

   ..Gleason.. 02/11/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31729477 32509399 32709394 32879371 32949232 32399208
               31649242 31359412 31489468 31729477 

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