Mesoscale Discussion 0125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

   Areas affected...portions of eastern North Texas...eastern
   Oklahoma...and much of central Arkansas

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 012330Z - 020530Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain should gradually expand in coverage and
   intensity this evening. Moderate freezing rain with rates of 0.05+
   in/hr will be possible beneath heavier banded structures.

   DISCUSSION...As of 23:20 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a large
   area of stratiform precipitation from roughly the DFW Metroplex,
   gradually expanding northeastward across portions of eastern OK and
   the ArkLaTex. Driven by low and mid-level warm advection centered
   over portions of eastern TX, precipitation has encountered
   increasingly dry mid-level air north of the Red River evident on
   area RAP soundings. This has prevented more widespread/steady
   moderate freezing rain from developing across portions of eastern OK
   and AR so far. However, recent decreasing trends in surface dewpoint
   depressions suggests saturation is becoming deep enough to sustain
   moderate freezing rain at the surface. With continued warm advection
   expected ahead of an upper low moving out of northern MX/southern TX
   later this evening, precipitation should continue to spread
   northeastward and intensify over the next several hours. Areas
   farther north and east will be slower to saturate, but should fully
   transition to steady freezing rain at the surface after 02-03z.

   Hi-res guidance also depicts a favored corridor for locally greater
   freezing rain rates across portions of southeastern OK into portions
   of west-central AR later this evening. Located upstream of recent,
   weakly convective showers over northeast TX, locally higher freezing
   rain rates in excess of 0.05-0.1 in/hr will be possible tonight.
   Given surface temperatures several degrees below the latest hi-res
   guidance, significant icing impacts are possible with several hours
   of persistent freezing precipitation.

   ..Lyons.. 02/01/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34419707 35079644 35859508 36199347 36019243 35809202
               35559172 34739159 33929199 33769245 33769281 33859325
               34239396 34239428 34109467 33529556 33429596 33399638
               33909728 34419707