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Mesoscale Discussion 126
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0126
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0503 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

   Areas of southern Arkansas into portions of the
   western half of Tennessee

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 021103Z - 021600Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05"/hour,
   on average, with higher amounts locally, will continue falling
   through mid morning from parts of southern Arkansas portions of the
   western half of Tennessee

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a zone of precipitation
   extending from central and northeastern Texas streaming
   east-northeastward into/across the Tennessee Valley area.  This
   precipitation is occurring within a zone of isentropic ascent atop a
   cold boundary layer, in advance of a slowly-eastward-moving upper
   system, currently centered in the vicinity of Far West Texas.

   Present indications are that as this system slowly advances, the
   persistent upglide will continue to support the ongoing
   precipitation band, with the heaviest amounts likely to extend from
   the Arklatex vicinity to the Tennessee Valley.

   Latest analysis of surface temperatures shows that most of
   northeastern Texas, and a majority of northern Louisiana remain
   above freezing, with a wavy 32 degrees F isotherm extending across
   southern Arkansas, northeastward to northern Mississippi, and into
   Middle Tennessee.  North of this isotherm, freezing rain is expected
   to continue, becoming somewhat heavier in parts of the area over the
   next couple of hours, before eventually diminishing gradually, later
   this morning.  This evolution is supported by the latest RAP
   forecast, which shows the heaviest amounts of freezing rain likely
   to occur within this area, and also by latest HREF output which also
   hints at this scenario.

   ..Goss.. 02/02/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33149328 33389360 33879416 34609242 35298960 35698902
               35888841 36228716 35808719 35488785 35038893 34298976
               34379074 33609093 33749175 33149209 33099301 33149328 

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