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Mesoscale Discussion 127
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MD 127 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0127
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle
   region...northwest Oklahoma and adjacent portions of southwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232057Z - 232330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue forming
   late this afternoon, with the development of an isolated supercell
   or two possible by 4-6 PM CST.  This may be accompanied by some risk
   for severe weather, but, overall, this threat still appears marginal
   in nature.

   DISCUSSION...Within lee surface troughing, a surface low appears in
   the process of developing and deepening near Liberal KS, with recent
   objective mesoanalysis suggesting sustained boundary layer
   convergence maximized along a confluence zone to the southeast and
   south of this feature, into the Texas Panhandle.  This is just to
   the east of where boundary layer warming (surface temps into the
   lower 70s F) and mixing have become maximized, with associated
   destabilization contributing to gradually deepening convective
   development the past couple of hours.

   Due to weak boundary layer moisture return through the southern
   Plains, including upper 40s near 50F across southern/eastern
   portions of the Panhandle region, objective analysis and forecast
   soundings indicate that mixed-layer CAPE is still very weak. 
   However, stronger ascent and cooling in the exit region of a
   cyclonic mid-level jet streak (50-70+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to
   begin overspreading this region, into the vicinity of the surface
   low, by 22-00Z.  As this occurs, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE
   may increase up to around 500 J/kg, contributing to at least some
   further intensification of thunderstorm activity.

   Although the environment, overall, still appears marginal, the
   evolution of one or two sustained supercells appears possible.  This
   may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and 
   localized strong surface gusts.  Low-level hodographs may not be
   particularly large, but an isolated brief tornado might not be out
   of the question, mainly in the immediate vicinity of the surface
   low, east-southeastward along an effective warm frontal zone into
   northwest Oklahoma (north of Gage).

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 02/23/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36370121 37170098 37400021 36979947 36419939 35380000
               34470046 34110092 34750158 35560147 36370121 

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