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Mesoscale Discussion 128
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0128
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

   Areas affected...Western and northern NY into far northwestern VT

   Concerning...Snow Squall 

   Valid 030136Z - 030530Z

   SUMMARY...There is increasing potential for snow squalls over parts
   of western and northern NY into far northwestern VT during the next
   1-3 hours. Rapid visibility reductions are possible in bursts of
   heavy snow.

   DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery depicts a few loosely
   organized snow bands tracking east-southeastward across southern
   Ontario and Quebec along/ahead of an advancing arctic cold front.
   Surface observations show a substantial pressure rise/fall couplet
   with this feature. As the front continues southeastward this
   evening, these snow bands may intensify/organize into snow squalls
   as they overspread parts of western/northern NY and northwestern VT.

   The 00Z observed BUF sounding showed a conditionally unstable
   boundary-layer (6.6 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates) and strong
   west-southwesterly low-level flow (44-kt BL mean wind) ahead of the
   front. These conditions, coupled with forcing along the cold front
   and strengthening large-scale ascent in the exit region of an
   approaching mid/upper-level jet, generally support snow squall
   development. However, the BUF sounding and surface observations
   indicate dry boundary-layer conditions into western NY -- casting
   some uncertainty on persistence and organization. With that said,
   continued light snow over western NY/related wet-bulb cooling and
   low-level moisture advection off the Lower Great Lakes could yield
   increasing boundary-layer RH, and overall conditions appear
   favorable for snow squalls capable of quick visibility reductions in
   bursts of heavy snow.

   ..Weinman.. 02/03/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44367324 43517529 42807679 42777788 43007854 43327873
               43457838 43497739 43627683 44117651 44667580 45037503
               45077398 45097300 44937282 44367324 

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