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Mesoscale Discussion 128
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0128
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221824Z - 222030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts will be possible as a line of
   shallow convection intensifies this afternoon across eastern North
   Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Minimal buoyancy should limit
   the overall threat. No WW is anticipated this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KRAX/KAKQ have shown a more
   defined line of precipitation along the advancing cold front.
   Modifying the observed 12Z GSO sounding with RDU surface conditions
   suggests very shallow 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE has developed. With
   temperatures in the low 60s F ahead of the line and dewpoints now in
   the upper 40s to low 50s F, convection along the front is expected
   to deepen and intensify in the next 1-2 hours. Warm temperatures
   aloft should will tend to keep convection shallow enough that
   lightning may not be all that prevalent even as the convection
   reaches peak intensity. However, regional VAD profiles show very
   strong flow of greater than 50 kts in the lowest 3 km. Even modest
   momentum transfer within the convective line could produce damaging
   wind gusts. Parts of east-central and northeastern North Carolina
   have seen more surface heating today and are likely the areas where
   buoyancy will be maximized. A WW is not anticipated given the very
   poor thermodynamic environment.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 02/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35437818 35647830 35937817 36307782 36727750 36957714
               37087679 37067634 36827604 36517603 36127596 35447634
               34967682 34807733 35177801 35437818 

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Page last modified: February 22, 2021
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