Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 132
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 132 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

   Areas affected...Southern/Southeast Virginia...Southeast Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270144Z - 270345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible with convection across
   southern/southeast Virginia into southeast Maryland this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong 500mb speed max (120kt on 27/00z FFC sounding)
   is forecast to translate across the southern Appalachians into the
   Middle Atlantic by 06z. In response to this speed max, a surface
   wave along the VA/NC border, near DAN, should track northeast over
   the next few hours. A well-defined warm front extends along the
   VA/NC border and this boundary should advance north allowing
   somewhat higher surface moisture to spread across southeast VA. Even
   so, primary concentration of convection is expected to reside
   along/north of the boundary where large-scale forcing for ascent
   will be maximized. 00z sounding at GSO exhibited surface-based
   buoyancy with MUCAPE in excess of 300 J/kg, though WAL/IAD soundings
   yield negligible elevated instability. Over the last hour or so,
   convection has gradually increased ahead of the low across
   Pittsylvania/Campbell County VA region. Some lightning is noted with
   this activity suggesting these updrafts have strengthened/deepened.
   While deep-layer shear is strong, low-level flow is not particularly
   noteworthy. For these reasons, gusty winds are the primary threat
   with this instability-challenged convection.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 02/27/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37797884 38487628 37527553 36827686 36597901 37797884 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: February 27, 2020
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities