|Mesoscale Discussion 132|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020
Areas affected...Southern/Southeast Virginia...Southeast Maryland
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270144Z - 270345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible with convection across
southern/southeast Virginia into southeast Maryland this evening.
DISCUSSION...Strong 500mb speed max (120kt on 27/00z FFC sounding)
is forecast to translate across the southern Appalachians into the
Middle Atlantic by 06z. In response to this speed max, a surface
wave along the VA/NC border, near DAN, should track northeast over
the next few hours. A well-defined warm front extends along the
VA/NC border and this boundary should advance north allowing
somewhat higher surface moisture to spread across southeast VA. Even
so, primary concentration of convection is expected to reside
along/north of the boundary where large-scale forcing for ascent
will be maximized. 00z sounding at GSO exhibited surface-based
buoyancy with MUCAPE in excess of 300 J/kg, though WAL/IAD soundings
yield negligible elevated instability. Over the last hour or so,
convection has gradually increased ahead of the low across
Pittsylvania/Campbell County VA region. Some lightning is noted with
this activity suggesting these updrafts have strengthened/deepened.
While deep-layer shear is strong, low-level flow is not particularly
noteworthy. For these reasons, gusty winds are the primary threat
with this instability-challenged convection.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37797884 38487628 37527553 36827686 36597901 37797884
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