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Mesoscale Discussion 135
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0135
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

   Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...western
   Kentucky...southern Illinois...and far northwestern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 022154Z - 030000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Towering cumulus continues to deepen across the discussion
   area, and eventual severe thunderstorm development is possible.  A
   WW may be needed over the next couple of hours pending convective
   trends.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus persists across the discussion area,
   likely in response to surface convergence near a boundary draped
   along the northern extent of the discussion area.  Point forecast
   soundings continue to indicate appreciable capping across the region
   - explaining the failed convective attempts across southern
   MO/northern AR so far this afternoon, though radar echoes are
   beginning to appear with convection across southeastern Missouri in
   the last 15 minutes.  

   Continued deepening of the cumulus field is expected to continue -
   with more widespread convective development expected as a mid-level
   wave migrates southeastward out of Nebraska/Iowa toward the region
   later.  This should result in at least isolated to scattered
   thunderstorm development, which is supported by recent CAMs.  Steep
   mid-level lapse rates (7.5-9C/km), strong deep shear, and fast flow
   aloft will support updraft organization and supercellular
   development, with hail (perhaps significant) expected with stronger
   cores over time.  Damaging wind gusts can also be expected with the
   storms.  A WW issuance may be needed in the next 1-2 hours across
   the region pending convective trends.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 03/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37778913 37569050 36959240 36619293 35809276 35899082
               36708794 37248753 37778913 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2020
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