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Mesoscale Discussion 136
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MD 136 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of south central and southeast Missouri
   ...adjacent northern Arkansas...into southern Illinois...western
   Kentucky and adjacent southwestern Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

   Valid 030039Z - 030215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms, including isolated supercells,
   will continue to overspread southeast Missouri into nearby portions
   of the lower Ohio Valley through 8-10 PM CST, posing a risk for
   severe hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development, generally discrete, has
   gradually increased across south central and southeast Missouri into
   the vicinity of the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. 
   This has generally been focused near through north of a frontal
   zone, downstream of a a modest low now to the east-northeast of
   Harrison AR, supported by low-level convergence along the front and
   lower/mid tropospheric warm advection.

   Through 02-04Z, the surface low is forecast to migrate toward the
   Poplar Bluff vicinity, with the trailing cold front advancing
   southeastward through northwest Arkansas.  While new thunderstorm
   development does not appear entirely out of the question along/ahead
   of the cold front, upper support near and south of the zonal to
   broadly anticyclonic high-level jet axis extending across the Ozark
   Plateau into Tennessee Valley remains unclear.  Models generally
   indicate an area of enhanced upper divergence developing
   across southeast Missouri into the lower Ohio valley this evening 
   near/north of the jet axis, which may enhance ongoing convection as
   it spreads eastward within 30-40 kt lower/mid tropospheric mean
   flow.  This may include strengthening of southwesterly flow around
   850 mb, and at least some enlargement of low-level hodographs.

   While ongoing storms may eventually congeal into a convective
   cluster, it is not obvious that this will be rapid or soon.  And as
   long as activity remains discrete in nature, stronger cells probably
   will continue to pose a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a tornado
   or two mainly across far southeast Missouri and the Missouri
   Bootheel region into adjacent portions of southern Illinois and
   western Kentucky.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37299223 37769091 37968933 38118768 37308758 36618894
               36459025 36359282 37299223 

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