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Mesoscale Discussion 137
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MD 137 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0900 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Missouri into southern
   Illinois...western Kentucky and adjacent portions of southern
   Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

   Valid 030300Z - 030430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for strong surface gusts may increase through
   10-11 PM CST near the Ohio River, across southern Illinois into
   western Kentucky.  Otherwise, storms may remain capable of producing
   marginally severe hail, with an additional tornado or two also
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...At 02Z, 2-hourly surface pressure falls (up to around 2
   mb) were maximized near/just west of Cape Girardeau MO, ahead of the
   surface low approaching Poplar Bluff MO.  This appears the focus for
   strongest convective development, which still includes discrete
   supercells, but appears to be in the process of consolidating into
   an organizing storm cluster.

   As the surface low continues to migrate east-northeast across and
   east of the Mississippi River (to the east of Cape Girardeau)
   through 04-05Z, the storm cluster is expected to continue evolving
   and spreading eastward ahead of it through far southern/southeastern
   Illinois, southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky.  Although warm
   sector mixed-layer CAPE (which peaked at up to 1000 J/kg) feeding
   into convection appears on the wane, it probably will remain
   sufficient to maintain vigorous convection through late evening. 
   Southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast to continue strengthening (to
   40-50 kt) across the warm sector into the vicinity of the front
   extending to the east of the surface low, and enlarging low-level
   hodographs may contribute to increasing potential for strong surface
   gusts. 

   Given increasing low-level shear, some potential for an additional
   tornado or two may remain, particularly with any lingering sustained
   discrete storms, however near surface thermodynamic conditions
   appear marginal for this threat.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36929089 37918887 37948797 37498643 36708704 36668839
               36548986 36479074 36929089 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2020
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