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Mesoscale Discussion 138
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast Arkansas...the Missouri
   Bootheel...western and middle Tennessee...and adjacent portions of
   southern Kentucky

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 35...

   Valid 030510Z - 030715Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 35 continues.

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is possible ahead of
   the southeastward advancing cold front, across northeastern Arkansas
   into western Tennessee through Midnight-2 AM CST, within an
   environment conducive to organized severe convection, including
   isolated supercells.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility
   of an additional severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...The modest surface low currently migrating across
   southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois is forecast to continue
   into Indiana, northwest through north of Evansville by 08-09Z, with
   the trailing cold front advancing eastward/southeastward across the
   Missouri Bootheel and much of the remainder of northern Arkansas. 
   Ahead of the front, and to the south of the ongoing cluster of
   storms, which is generally showing signs of weakening while cutting
   off moisture return to the north of the western Kentucky/Tennessee
   state border, the boundary layer remains relatively moist and
   potentially unstable across southeastern Arkansas into western
   Tennessee.  

   Mixed-layer CAPE may still be in excess of 500 J/kg, as mid-level
   troughing within a northern branch of split mid-latitude westerlies
   begins to amplify southeastward through portions of the Ozark
   Plateau.  It appears that this may contribute to increasing forcing
   for ascent across northeastern Arkansas into western Tennessee, and
   support for at least isolated new thunderstorm development by
   06-07Z. 

   With further strengthening of the 40-45 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet
   now traversing the region, the pre-frontal environment may become
   increasingly conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development,
   including supercells.  Some of this activity may pose a risk for
   severe hail, strong surface gusts and perhaps potential for a
   tornado or two.

   ..Kerr.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35319121 36198983 36948912 37318770 36858602 35758657
               35078801 34709089 35319121 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2020
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