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Mesoscale Discussion 140
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MD 140 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0140
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0408 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

   Areas affected...northern New Jersey...southeastern New York...Long
   Island and southern Connecticut

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 131008Z - 131445Z

   SUMMARY...Sustained heavy snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour may
   become focused across much of the Greater New York City Metropolitan
   area by 8-11 AM EST.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to develop east-northeastward
   into and through much of the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New
   England.  This includes moderate to occasionally heavy snow
   developing on the northern periphery of the shield, but the
   changeover to snow and snow rates have been hampered at least some
   by boundary-layer temperatures initially above freezing, and a layer
   between 850-700 mb with above freezing temperatures, as far north as
   the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity.

   Significant surface cyclogenesis does now appear underway
   near/offshore of the Hampton Roads vicinity, with the rapid further
   deepening of the cyclone forecast as it progresses
   east-northeastward into the Atlantic through the day.  This will be
   accompanied by southward advection of colder lower/mid-tropospheric
   air into the the northern Mid Atlantic, and the latest Rapid Refresh
   continues to indicate intensifying deep-layer frontogenesis in a
   zone across the northern New Jersey/Long Island vicinity through mid
   to late morning.  Beneath strengthening divergence between coupled
   jet streaks aloft, models indicate that upward vertical motion will
   become maximized within mid/upper levels, including a layer near and
   just below 500 mb where temperatures are favorably cold to support
   large dendritic ice crystal growth.

   Forecast soundings suggest that saturating and sufficiently cold
   profiles with precipitable water around .70 inches may focus
   intensifying and heaviest snow across much of the Greater New York
   City area through 13-16Z.  It appears that this probably will
   include rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour and occasionally
   heavier.

   ..Kerr.. 02/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

   LAT...LON   40707315 40407438 40667473 41207396 41397229 40827216
               40707315 

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