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Mesoscale Discussion 140
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0140
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0838 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

   Areas affected...far western KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090238Z - 090445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some risk for damaging gusts may develop over mainly
   portions of far western KY through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates storms have intensified during
   the past 30-60 minutes across far southeast MO.  Surface analysis
   shows temperatures/dewpoints have warmed into the lower 60s over
   northern parts of western TN and into the mid-upper 50s at Paducah. 
   The northward theta-e advection within the arching warm frontal zone
   over western KY/middle TN has led to weak buoyancy developing across
   the lower OH Valley.  Around 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE is located across
   this region according to RAP 0-hr forecast soundings and objective
   analysis.  Given the veering and very strong flow fields from just
   above the surface through the mid troposphere, it seems this
   evolving line segment near the MS River may yield a risk for
   damaging gusts over the next couple of hours across western KY.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 02/09/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36948916 37398841 37318802 37028794 36788820 36318942

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