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Mesoscale Discussion 144
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0144
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

   Areas affected...much of West Virginia...southwestern
   Pennsylvania...western Maryland...and southeastern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031822Z - 032015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Low-topped convection may produce isolated damaging wind
   gusts over the course of the afternoon.  A WW issuance is not
   anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively low-topped convection has increased in
   coverage over the past half hour or so, with lightning flashes
   observed near stronger cores.  Thermodynamic profiles are only
   marginally unstable across the discussion area, although western
   portions of the discussion area are beginning to be influenced by
   substantial cooling aloft associated with an approaching shortwave. 
   The cooling/destabilization has resulted in about 250-500 J/kg
   MUCAPE which is supporting the ongoing convection, and the
   combination of this cooling and surface heating will result in just
   enough destabilization for convection to traverse the discussion
   area over the next two to three hours or so.  

   Fast flow aloft (50-70 kt near the top of updrafts) and downward
   momentum processes may result in isolated damaging wind gusts
   through the afternoon especially as convection continues to deepen
   and/or organize into linear segments.  The overall severe threat
   appears to be too low to necessitate a WW issuance at this time,
   however.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40697953 40298090 39338222 38808256 38168198 38447992
               38977834 39677813 40117808 40557853 40697953 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2020
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