|Mesoscale Discussion 144|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020
Areas affected...much of West Virginia...southwestern
Pennsylvania...western Maryland...and southeastern Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031822Z - 032015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Low-topped convection may produce isolated damaging wind
gusts over the course of the afternoon. A WW issuance is not
anticipated for this activity.
DISCUSSION...Relatively low-topped convection has increased in
coverage over the past half hour or so, with lightning flashes
observed near stronger cores. Thermodynamic profiles are only
marginally unstable across the discussion area, although western
portions of the discussion area are beginning to be influenced by
substantial cooling aloft associated with an approaching shortwave.
The cooling/destabilization has resulted in about 250-500 J/kg
MUCAPE which is supporting the ongoing convection, and the
combination of this cooling and surface heating will result in just
enough destabilization for convection to traverse the discussion
area over the next two to three hours or so.
Fast flow aloft (50-70 kt near the top of updrafts) and downward
momentum processes may result in isolated damaging wind gusts
through the afternoon especially as convection continues to deepen
and/or organize into linear segments. The overall severe threat
appears to be too low to necessitate a WW issuance at this time,
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40697953 40298090 39338222 38808256 38168198 38447992
38977834 39677813 40117808 40557853 40697953
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