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Mesoscale Discussion 144
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0144
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast MS and Northwest AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191618Z - 191745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail may accompany small thunderstorm cluster as it
   tracks across northeast MS into northwest AL over the next few
   hours. At this time do not anticipate issuing a short-term severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of convection has tracked from
   southwest AR into northeast MS. Over the last hour or so it appears
   updraft strength with this activity has intensified along nose of
   low-level warm/moist advection. Hail algorithm supports this with
   MRMS data exhibiting sizes possibly in excess of 1.5". Given the
   overall air mass destabilization expected into northern AL over the
   next few hours it appears this activity could maintain its intensity
   along with primarily a hail threat.

   More intense supercells are expected to develop along the
   western/southern flank of this early-day convection. At that time
   more significant severe threat, including the possibility for
   tornadoes, should evolve.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35018898 35028759 34368756 34468912 35018898 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2018
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