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Mesoscale Discussion 145
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/central AL and
   southwestern/central GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031852Z - 032115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty thunderstorm winds could produce
   occasional damage this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...On the southern fringe of large-scale ascent aloft,
   multiple lines and clusters of shallow storms have formed
   along/south of a convectively reinforced surface boundary extending
   west to east across AL/GA. A southern-stream mid-level westerly jet
   is maintaining 50-70+ kt of flow aloft, as evidenced by recent VWPs
   from KMXX and KBMX. Recent visible satellite imagery shows low-level
   cloud bands feeding into the boundary, and a modest uptick in
   convective intensity has recently occurred. Although cloud cover
   remains prevalent across much of southern/central AL into
   southwestern/central GA, some heating has occurred to the south of
   the surface boundary.

   A modest steepening of low-level lapse rates could allow for some of
   the stronger storms to produce locally gusty winds with occasional
   damage as they move east-southeastward through the afternoon. One of
   the cells embedded within a line earlier exhibited weak low-level
   rotation over northern Montgomery County AL. But, low-level flow
   should continue to slowly veer and weaken over the next few hours,
   with any tornado threat expected to remain rather low. The limited
   thermodynamic environment, with MLCAPE generally 250-500 J/kg, and
   storm orientation largely parallel to the surface boundary should
   preclude a greater severe threat. Accordingly, watch issuance
   appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31728591 31938735 32208839 32588833 32878691 32978561
               32758443 32498328 32338302 32028305 31718362 31728491
               31728591 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2020
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