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Mesoscale Discussion 145
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

   Areas affected...the western coast of Florida north of Tampa Bay

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030747Z - 031015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to affect the region from
   north to south through early morning, and a few strong wind gusts
   cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms persists along a cold front,
   with northern end now into Levy County and the bulk of the line over
   the Gulf of Mexico. Surface analysis shows relatively cool and
   stable air over northern FL, with only lower 60s F dewpoints. The
   more unstable air currently resides farther south near TBW with
   dewpoints to 70 F.

   As a shortwave trough grazes northern FL, southwest winds above the
   surface will maintain gradual warm/moist advection. Currently,
   modest pressure falls are noted with up to 1 mb/hr. As this
   continues ahead of the line, some airmass recovery is expected along
   the coast, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints by about 09-10Z.

   Even so, modified forecast soundings show poor lapse rates aloft,
   and minimal instability. The most favorable aspect will be strong
   westerlies aloft and strong deep-layer shear, aiding storm longevity
   and perhaps aiding in downward momentum transfer for a few strong
   gusts.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29218296 29268256 29018225 28618218 28328238 28118263
               28028291 28358283 28638277 28898280 29218296 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2021
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