Mesoscale Discussion 0145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021
Areas affected...the western coast of Florida north of Tampa Bay
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030747Z - 031015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to affect the region from
north to south through early morning, and a few strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms persists along a cold front,
with northern end now into Levy County and the bulk of the line over
the Gulf of Mexico. Surface analysis shows relatively cool and
stable air over northern FL, with only lower 60s F dewpoints. The
more unstable air currently resides farther south near TBW with
dewpoints to 70 F.
As a shortwave trough grazes northern FL, southwest winds above the
surface will maintain gradual warm/moist advection. Currently,
modest pressure falls are noted with up to 1 mb/hr. As this
continues ahead of the line, some airmass recovery is expected along
the coast, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints by about 09-10Z.
Even so, modified forecast soundings show poor lapse rates aloft,
and minimal instability. The most favorable aspect will be strong
westerlies aloft and strong deep-layer shear, aiding storm longevity
and perhaps aiding in downward momentum transfer for a few strong
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29218296 29268256 29018225 28618218 28328238 28118263
28028291 28358283 28638277 28898280 29218296