|Mesoscale Discussion 146|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020
Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania...Maryland...West
Virginia...and western through northern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032127Z - 032330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Relatively shallow convection continues to migrate
eastward into the discussion area and will continue to pose a threat
of isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail. A WW issuance is
not anticipated for this activity.
DISCUSSION...Relatively shallow convection continues within an axis
of weak instability extending from near FKL to EKN to BKW. Ahead of
this axis, insolation has allowed for temperatures to rise into the
low 60s amidst mid/upper 40s F dewpoints. Cooling associated with
advancement of a mid-level wave across the region has contributed to
the destabilization and will likely allow for this axis of
instability to spread eastward in tandem with convection across the
discussion area over the next couple hours or so. A mix of cellular
and linear convection should continue, which will allow for
occasional updraft rotation given strong shear and fast flow aloft.
Any wind/hail threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane
after dark with the onset of nocturnal boundary layer cooling.
Furthermore, the weak instability is limiting the overall magnitude
of the severe threat, precluding a WW issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41397955 41617817 41237713 40817672 40317676 39627684
39217714 38327824 37637981 37458098 37718138 38248114
38978050 39848007 41397955
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