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Mesoscale Discussion 146
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MD 146 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

   Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania...Maryland...West
   Virginia...and western through northern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032127Z - 032330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Relatively shallow convection continues to migrate
   eastward into the discussion area and will continue to pose a threat
   of isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail.  A WW issuance is
   not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively shallow convection continues within an axis
   of weak instability extending from near FKL to EKN to BKW.  Ahead of
   this axis, insolation has allowed for temperatures to rise into the
   low 60s amidst mid/upper 40s F dewpoints.  Cooling associated with
   advancement of a mid-level wave across the region has contributed to
   the destabilization and will likely allow for this axis of
   instability to spread eastward in tandem with convection across the
   discussion area over the next couple hours or so.  A mix of cellular
   and linear convection should continue, which will allow for
   occasional updraft rotation given strong shear and fast flow aloft. 
   Any wind/hail threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane
   after dark with the onset of nocturnal boundary layer cooling. 
   Furthermore, the weak instability is limiting the overall magnitude
   of the severe threat, precluding a WW issuance.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41397955 41617817 41237713 40817672 40317676 39627684
               39217714 38327824 37637981 37458098 37718138 38248114
               38978050 39848007 41397955 

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