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Mesoscale Discussion 148
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0905 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau into central
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040305Z - 040530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears likely
   by the 10 PM to Midnight CST time frame.  Some of this activity may
   become capable of producing severe hail.  A watch is generally not
   anticipated, but boundary-layer destabilization closer to the Rio
   Grande River will continue to be monitored late this evening into
   the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of a closed mid-level low slowly approaching
   the Texas Big Bend region, large-scale ascent appears to be in the
   process of increasing within a corridor west/southwest of Del Rio
   TX, through portions of the Edwards Plateau, into central Texas.  As
   this continues, model output suggests that this will eventually
   erode mid-level level inhibition and support the initiation of
   scattered thunderstorm development.  This may occur as early as
   04-06Z.  While activity is expected to be rooted mostly within a
   lower/mid tropospheric warm advection regime, roughly focused along
   the thermal gradient near the 700 mb level, lifted parcels may be
   characterized by CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg.  Despite
   somewhat modest mid-level lapse rates, strong cloud-bearing layer
   shear may contribute to a few rotating storms capable of producing 
   occasional severe hail.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31050009 31579856 31779716 31289616 30439636 29619871
               29429964 29530010 29860052 30200073 31050009 

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