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Mesoscale Discussion 157
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Louisiana into far southern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041957Z - 042200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is possible over the next few
   hours south of a near-stationary front. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
   tornado or two are possible. Convective trends will continue to be
   monitored for a possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete cellular development has recently been noted
   across southern LA within a low-level confluence zone. These storms
   are evolving south of the surface quasi-stationary baroclinic zone,
   where a strongly sheared, surface-based airmass is in place (1000+
   J/kg MLCAPE coinciding with 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH), owing to the
   presence of a diurnal, dynamically driven low-level jet. In
   addition, recent visible satellite data suggests that modest
   insolation is taking place, helping to locally boost instability
   across southern LA into far southern MS. 

   Given the stronger upper-level support lagging to the west, it is
   unclear how much more widespread/intense convection will become.
   However, any storms that manage to obtain and sustain supercellular
   structures will pose the threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
   a tornado or two, especially for any storms that can latch to the
   aforementioned surface boundary. As such, convective trends will
   continue to be monitored for the potential need of a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29539282 30189226 30809092 31089005 31078889 30688847
               30138851 29498907 29259174 29539282 

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Page last modified: March 04, 2020
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