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Mesoscale Discussion 158
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2020

   Areas affected...western/central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042251Z - 050045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible associated with
   shallow convection across western and central South Dakota this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is beginning to dig and
   deepen southeast across the northern Plains with an associated
   surface low in southeast Saskatchewan. A cold front is extending
   south-southwest from the surface low draping across western North
   Dakota into northwest South Dakota and along the Montana/Wyoming
   border. Along and ahead of the cold front shallow convection has
   developed with sporadic lightning, but has produced severe wind
   gusts including in Buffalo, SD. This broken line of convection will
   continue moving southeastward through western/central South Dakota. 
   Strong deep-layer flow combined with this shallow convection could
   continue to produce isolated severe gusts. The eastern extent will
   be limited by snow cover and lower theta-e air, although warmer
   temperatures and overspreading instability aloft could push the line
   into south-central South Dakota in the next couple of hours.

   ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 03/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43420049 43530121 43800237 44210341 44650409 45170207
               45410153 45670114 46040073 45900016 45479988 44959946
               44399937 43899946 43450001 43420049 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2020
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