Mesoscale Discussion 0160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2020
Areas affected...southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 050826Z - 051100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail may develop later this
morning across southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida
DISCUSSION...Warm/moist advection continues north of the surface
front which currently stretches from the northern Gulf of Mexico
across the FL Panhandle. This front has become nearly stationary,
and may very slowly shift north later this morning as southerly
winds just off the surface persist. Meanwhile, the deeper baroclinic
zone extends east-west across central MS, AL, and northern GA where
a larger precip shield with embedded storms persists.
Isolated, elevated storms currently exist over southern MS and AL,
where elevated CAPE is maximized. Favorable deep-layer shear, as
well as cool temperatures aloft may support hail in the strongest
cells. As the elevated moisture and instability become better
established later this morning, storms should increase in coverage.
While isolated marginally severe storms are possible, a watch does
not appear necessary at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30178610 30068714 30488751 31358719 32588672 32858582
32918470 32738410 32258359 31698349 31118393 30408508