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Mesoscale Discussion 160
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0160
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2020

   Areas affected...southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050826Z - 051100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail may develop later this
   morning across southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida
   Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...Warm/moist advection continues north of the surface
   front which currently stretches from the northern Gulf of Mexico
   across the FL Panhandle. This front has become nearly stationary,
   and may very slowly shift north later this morning as southerly
   winds just off the surface persist. Meanwhile, the deeper baroclinic
   zone extends east-west across central MS, AL, and northern GA where
   a larger precip shield with embedded storms persists.

   Isolated, elevated storms currently exist over southern MS and AL,
   where elevated CAPE is maximized. Favorable deep-layer shear, as
   well as cool temperatures aloft may support hail in the strongest
   cells. As the elevated moisture and instability become better
   established later this morning, storms should increase in coverage.
   While isolated marginally severe storms are possible, a watch does
   not appear necessary at this time.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30178610 30068714 30488751 31358719 32588672 32858582
               32918470 32738410 32258359 31698349 31118393 30408508
               30278567 30178610 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2020
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