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Mesoscale Discussion 161
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0161
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of north FL and southern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051828Z - 052100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat, including the potential for isolated
   tornadoes, may increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A surface boundary extends roughly southwest to
   northeast across parts of northern FL and southern GA this
   afternoon. A storm has recently strengthened in the vicinity of
   Tallahassee, FL along this boundary. A low-level jet is expected to
   continue strengthening over the next couple of hours across this
   region. Very strong low-level shear will be present, and low-level
   rotation may occur with any storm that can remain surface based
   along/south of the boundary. A moist and unstable airmass also
   exists across this region, and supercell structures are possible
   given the degree of both low and mid-level shear. All severe hazards
   may occur. Isolated tornadoes appear possible with effective SRH
   around 200-250 m2/s2, especially with any storm that can develop
   northeastward along the boundary. Watch issuance is possible in the
   next couple of hours depending on observational trends.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 03/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30368464 31058367 31388206 31128134 30448133 30098164
               29968288 30078421 30168453 30368464 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2020
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