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Mesoscale Discussion 162
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2020

   Areas affected...western/southwestern Missouri...far southeastern
   Kansas...and far northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092041Z - 092245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk of damaging wind gusts may evolve with
   gradually increasing convection across east-central Kansas over the
   next couple hours or so.  A WW is not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaic/satellite imagery indicate a
   gradually deepening axis of convection located from near OJC
   (Olathe, KS) south-southwestward to near CNU (Chanute, KS).  These
   storms were oriented along a pre-frontal trough migrating eastward
   across the region.  The storms were in an environment characterized
   by weak instability (250-750 J/kg MUCAPE) but strong low-level and
   deep shear, which should favor organization and some updraft
   rotation as long as storms can deepen and mature.  Continued
   destabilization is expected owing to low-level warm advection amidst
   40-45 kt southwesterly 850 hPa flow and cooling aloft associated
   with an advancing mid-level wave over central Kansas.  Should this
   convection mature, CAMs indicate a primarily cellular convective
   mode, which suggests a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps a tornado.

   The overall risk is mitigated by weak instability, however.  This
   should preclude a WW issuance although convective trends will be
   monitored through the evening.

   ..Cook/Moore/Hart.. 03/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38189519 38709485 39069394 39129317 38789266 38059263
               37209313 36809390 36679503 36879543 37459541 38189519 

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Page last modified: March 09, 2020
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