|Mesoscale Discussion 163|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
Areas affected...central and southeastern Kansas into northeastern
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110702Z - 110900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginally
severe hail -- should continue to gradually evolve this morning
within a broader area of convection, spreading east-southeastward
with time across Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows convection increasing in
coverage across the central Kansas vicinity, with some increase in
storm intensity also noted. This is occcurring as low-level
moistening/warming is occurring above a surface-based stable layer,
associated with a 60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet now noted
per KVNX WSR-88D in northern Oklahoma.
This warming is occurring beneath a layer of modest cooling as a
mid-level vorticity lobe continues shifting east-southeastward out
of Nebraska and into northern Kansas. The steepening of lapse rates
as a result of these two processes is yielding the observed uptick
in convective intensity, and this trend is expected to continue over
the next few hours.
With flow aloft veering to westerly aloft, shear sufficient to
enhance storm intensification is present. At this time, it appears
that a relatively deep, substantially stable boundary layer will
preclude appreciable wind risk. Primary severe potential with the
evolving storms will therefore likely remain hail in the 1 to 1.5"
range. Watch probability -- while low at this time -- could
increase later in the morning as storms spread into the Ozarks
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38609953 38889943 38879807 38759776 38649704 38219553
37609408 36799447 36479517 36949603 38609953
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