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Mesoscale Discussion 163
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

   Areas affected...central and southeastern Kansas into northeastern
   Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110702Z - 110900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginally
   severe hail -- should continue to gradually evolve this morning
   within a broader area of convection, spreading east-southeastward
   with time across Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows convection increasing in
   coverage across the central Kansas vicinity, with some increase in
   storm intensity also noted.  This is occcurring as low-level
   moistening/warming is occurring above a surface-based stable layer,
   associated with a 60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet now noted
   per KVNX WSR-88D in northern Oklahoma.  

   This warming is occurring beneath a layer of modest cooling as a
   mid-level vorticity lobe continues shifting east-southeastward out
   of Nebraska and into northern Kansas.  The steepening of lapse rates
   as a result of these two processes is yielding the observed uptick
   in convective intensity, and this trend is expected to continue over
   the next few hours.

   With flow aloft veering to westerly aloft, shear sufficient to
   enhance storm intensification is present.  At this time, it appears
   that a relatively deep, substantially stable boundary layer will
   preclude appreciable wind risk.  Primary severe potential with the
   evolving storms will therefore likely remain hail in the 1 to 1.5"
   range.  Watch probability -- while low at this time -- could
   increase later in the morning as storms spread into the Ozarks

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 03/11/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38609953 38889943 38879807 38759776 38649704 38219553
               37609408 36799447 36479517 36949603 38609953 

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