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Mesoscale Discussion 164
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0164
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0427 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Kansas/northeastern
   Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110927Z - 111130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A convective cluster will continue spreading
   east-southeastward out of southeastern Kansas toward the Ozark
   Plateau, with limited risk for marginally severe hail and locally
   strong/gusty winds.  WW issuance continues to appear unlikely to be
   required in the shorter term.

   DISCUSSION...Convection over the past 1 to 2 hours has evolved from
   a more initially cellular mode to more of a loosely organized
   cluster, with some hints that a weak convective mesolow may be
   evolving near the southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri border. 
   Given the transition toward a loosely linear mode, risk for hail in
   excess of 1" has diminished, with only limited risk for a marginally
   severe hailstone apparent at this time.

   Meanwhile, the airmass downstream from the convection remains
   characterized by modest instability atop a stable surface-based
   layer.  As such, potential for severe-caliber wind gusts appears to
   remain low.  However, a few strong wind gusts capable of minor tree
   damage cannot be ruled out, as storms spread east-southeastward into
   southern Missouri/northern Arkansas.  Overall, potential for severe
   weather remains limited, and watch issuance remains unlikely in the
   short term.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 03/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37699503 37939424 37899369 37379207 36569147 35619201
               35789389 36349503 37259591 37699503 

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Page last modified: March 11, 2020
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