Mesoscale Discussion 0164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
Areas affected...southeastern Kansas/northeastern
Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110927Z - 111130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A convective cluster will continue spreading
east-southeastward out of southeastern Kansas toward the Ozark
Plateau, with limited risk for marginally severe hail and locally
strong/gusty winds. WW issuance continues to appear unlikely to be
required in the shorter term.
DISCUSSION...Convection over the past 1 to 2 hours has evolved from
a more initially cellular mode to more of a loosely organized
cluster, with some hints that a weak convective mesolow may be
evolving near the southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri border.
Given the transition toward a loosely linear mode, risk for hail in
excess of 1" has diminished, with only limited risk for a marginally
severe hailstone apparent at this time.
Meanwhile, the airmass downstream from the convection remains
characterized by modest instability atop a stable surface-based
layer. As such, potential for severe-caliber wind gusts appears to
remain low. However, a few strong wind gusts capable of minor tree
damage cannot be ruled out, as storms spread east-southeastward into
southern Missouri/northern Arkansas. Overall, potential for severe
weather remains limited, and watch issuance remains unlikely in the
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37699503 37939424 37899369 37379207 36569147 35619201
35789389 36349503 37259591 37699503