|Mesoscale Discussion 165|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
Areas affected...Central/Eastern/Southeastern AR...Northwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111454Z - 111700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over
the next few hours. Convective trends will be monitored for signs of
storm intensification and the resulting need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...A weakly organized convective line continues to
progress southeastward across central AR. Central and western
portions of this line (from roughly 30 miles northeast of LIT
westward to southwest of RUE) have shown increased forward
progression over the past hour or so. Recent storm motion estimated
of this portion of the line was southeastward at 45 kt. Despite this
quick storm motion, the entire line appears to be slightly elevated
at this time, tempering the overall damaging wind gust potential.
Isolated hail is currently the primary threat.
A general southeastward progression is expected to continue over the
next several hours. Gradual warming/moistening within the downstream
air mass will result in a more favorable thermodynamic environment
for surface-based storms. Consequently, a gradual increase in the
intensity of the convective line is anticipated, although much of
this increase is not expected to occur until later this afternoon
across MS and AL. Even so, the organizing character of the line
bears watching over the next few hours and convective trends will be
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34159274 34969304 35389214 35389106 34918941 34068930
33369006 33499185 34159274
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