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Mesoscale Discussion 165
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MD 165 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern/Southeastern AR...Northwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111454Z - 111700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over
   the next few hours. Convective trends will be monitored for signs of
   storm intensification and the resulting need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...A weakly organized convective line continues to
   progress southeastward across central AR. Central and western
   portions of this line (from roughly 30 miles northeast of LIT
   westward to southwest of RUE) have shown increased forward
   progression over the past hour or so. Recent storm motion estimated
   of this portion of the line was southeastward at 45 kt. Despite this
   quick storm motion, the entire line appears to be slightly elevated
   at this time, tempering the overall damaging wind gust potential.
   Isolated hail is currently the primary threat.

   A general southeastward progression is expected to continue over the
   next several hours. Gradual warming/moistening within the downstream
   air mass will result in a more favorable thermodynamic environment
   for surface-based storms. Consequently, a gradual increase in the
   intensity of the convective line is anticipated, although much of
   this increase is not expected to occur until later this afternoon
   across MS and AL. Even so, the organizing character of the line
   bears watching over the next few hours and convective trends will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 03/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34159274 34969304 35389214 35389106 34918941 34068930
               33369006 33499185 34159274 

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Page last modified: March 11, 2020
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