Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 165
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 165 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0954 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern/Southeastern AR...Northwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111454Z - 111700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible over
   the next few hours. Convective trends will be monitored for signs of
   storm intensification and the resulting need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...A weakly organized convective line continues to
   progress southeastward across central AR. Central and western
   portions of this line (from roughly 30 miles northeast of LIT
   westward to southwest of RUE) have shown increased forward
   progression over the past hour or so. Recent storm motion estimated
   of this portion of the line was southeastward at 45 kt. Despite this
   quick storm motion, the entire line appears to be slightly elevated
   at this time, tempering the overall damaging wind gust potential.
   Isolated hail is currently the primary threat.

   A general southeastward progression is expected to continue over the
   next several hours. Gradual warming/moistening within the downstream
   air mass will result in a more favorable thermodynamic environment
   for surface-based storms. Consequently, a gradual increase in the
   intensity of the convective line is anticipated, although much of
   this increase is not expected to occur until later this afternoon
   across MS and AL. Even so, the organizing character of the line
   bears watching over the next few hours and convective trends will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 03/11/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34159274 34969304 35389214 35389106 34918941 34068930
               33369006 33499185 34159274 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: March 11, 2020
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities