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Mesoscale Discussion 172
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MD 172 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

   Areas affected...Far Southern IL...Far Western KY

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 46...

   Valid 122020Z - 122145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of increased potential for damaging wind gusts
   and/or tornadoes may develop across far southern IL and far western
   KY over the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends from KPAH suggest the storm along
   the far western periphery of convective line is becoming more
   supercellular. Strong low-level shear exists within the immediate
   downstream air mass with recent KPAH VAD sampled 0-1 km bulk shear
   of 50 kt. Recent storm motion of this storm was estimated at
   southeastward (i.e. 300 degrees) at 38-40 kt. Using this current
   storm motion results in 0-1 km SRH over 600 m2/s2. The strongly
   sheared environment is favorable for maintenance of the current
   storm, with the potential for additional organization/strengthening.
   Consequently, there appears to be a corridor where enhanced
   potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes may develop across
   southern IL and far western KY during the next hour or two.

   ..Mosier.. 03/12/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37768812 37508738 37028702 36738761 37108863 37508869

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