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Mesoscale Discussion 173
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0173
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Northeast Arkansas...Western
   Tip of Kentucky...Western Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...

   Valid 122251Z - 130015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across southeast Missouri into
   northeast Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells are increasing in intensity ahead of
   the surface front from southeast MO into northeast AR. Two notable
   supercells have evolved among the southwest-northeast elongated
   cluster, one over Butler County MO, the other moving into Lawrence
   County AR. This activity is maturing within an axis of stronger
   instability along the eastern plume of somewhat steeper low-level
   lapse rates. 21z sounding from LZK does not sample this plume well
   as strong capping is evident at 850mb. Even so, observed shear
   profiles strongly support supercell structures that should dig south
   of east over the next few hours. Other maturing supercells are
   expected within a broader zone extending into portions of western
   TN/western KY into the evening hours.

   ..Darrow.. 03/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36059170 36939068 36488902 35309003 36059170 

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Page last modified: March 13, 2020
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