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Mesoscale Discussion 174
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0174
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

   Areas affected...The Lower Colorado River Valley into southwest
   Arizona.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122306Z - 130030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe storms are possible
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization has occurred across the Lower
   Colorado River Valley where temperatures have warmed into the upper
   60s through broken cloudcover. In addition, dewpoints have increased
   into the lower 60s yielding MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Effective shear
   across the region will range from 25 to 40 knots which will be
   sufficient for some storm organization. Cold air aloft should help
   support some stronger updrafts capable of producing severe hail. In
   addition, some damaging winds will be possible with any of the
   stronger storms. 

   Overall, expect the threat to remain marginal, and thus a watch is
   unlikely.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 03/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   32631568 33401581 33981596 34521615 34791614 35081556
               35101426 35011347 34191211 33641164 32881152 31911223
               31751258 32631568 

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Page last modified: March 13, 2020
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