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Mesoscale Discussion 177
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0177
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest Texas and southeast New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 131849Z - 132045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity in
   the next 1-2 hours and will pose a threat for severe hail, damaging
   winds, and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level upslope flow and heating over much of the
   high terrain of northern Mexico, far west Texas, and southern New
   Mexico is contributing to widely-scattered thunderstorm development
   over the western portion of the MCD area. The coverage and intensity
   of these thunderstorms is expected to gradually increase over the
   next 1-2 hours. Maintenance of these storms will be supported by an
   area of upper 50s surface dewpoints along/southwest of a
   quasi-stationary/warm front that is draped from near San Angelo, TX,
   west then northwestward to near Fort Sumner, NM. The front is not
   expected to move northward much throughout the afternoon.

   Although mid-level lapse rates will remain modest, heating of the
   relatively moist boundary layer is expected to continue throughout
   the afternoon and will result in large enough low-level lapse rates
   to support MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg along and south/southwest of the
   front.  MLCIN will range from near zero over the western portion of
   the MCD area to -150 J/kg initially over the eastern portion of the
   MCD area, but most of the MLCIN south/southwest of the front is
   expected to erode by mid afternoon. Furthermore, sufficient MUCAPE
   will be present north of the front to maintain storms that develop
   along (or cross over) the front throughout the afternoon. Very long,
   nearly-straight-line hodographs will support splitting supercells
   with a severe hail threat on both sides of the front. Given the
   expected maintenance of the stable layer north of the front, the
   severe wind threat should be limited to areas of steep low-level
   lapse rates along and south/southwest of the front, with the tornado
   threat initially limited to storms that can tap the higher SRH
   within easterly surface winds along/south of the front.

   Given the expected evolution of severe thunderstorms this afternoon,
   a Tornado Watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Coniglio/Grams.. 03/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31560527 32110562 32850567 33410557 33750525 34120475
               34080418 33910379 33440323 32640263 32110210 31930202
               31570178 31080172 30580178 30370196 29980261 29920343
               30360441 30890487 31240508 31560527 

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Page last modified: March 13, 2020
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