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Mesoscale Discussion 179
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0179
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0752 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Trans Pecos

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

   Valid 140052Z - 140215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells will pose a large hail/brief tornado
   threat over the next 2 to 3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed supercell in northwest Reeves county
   currently has MESH estimates of 2+ inch hail. An additional
   supercell is developing south of this initial supercell west of
   Pecos. A downstream environment of 750 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and
   effective shear of 70+ kts should support these storms continuing
   eastward for a few more hours. The window for surface based storms
   will likely be limited as the boundary layer is increasingly cool
   with eastward extent. Low-level flow is weak on the 00Z MAF RAOB
   (<20 kts below 700mb), but has significant cyclonic curvature.
   Therefore, a brief tornado threat will likely exist for the next
   hour or so with a large hail threat continuing thereafter.

   ..Bentley.. 03/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31760405 31950363 32080298 32110290 32130228 31990202
               31560201 31280251 31180295 31240364 31400407 31570417
               31760405 

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Page last modified: March 14, 2020
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