|Mesoscale Discussion 179|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Areas affected...Portions of the Trans Pecos
Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...
Valid 140052Z - 140215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells will pose a large hail/brief tornado
threat over the next 2 to 3 hours.
DISCUSSION...A well-developed supercell in northwest Reeves county
currently has MESH estimates of 2+ inch hail. An additional
supercell is developing south of this initial supercell west of
Pecos. A downstream environment of 750 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and
effective shear of 70+ kts should support these storms continuing
eastward for a few more hours. The window for surface based storms
will likely be limited as the boundary layer is increasingly cool
with eastward extent. Low-level flow is weak on the 00Z MAF RAOB
(<20 kts below 700mb), but has significant cyclonic curvature.
Therefore, a brief tornado threat will likely exist for the next
hour or so with a large hail threat continuing thereafter.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31760405 31950363 32080298 32110290 32130228 31990202
31560201 31280251 31180295 31240364 31400407 31570417
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