Mesoscale Discussion 0180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Areas affected...West-central Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...
Valid 140232Z - 140430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat expected to continue this evening
across west-central Texas. Wind damage, large hail and a tornado
will be possible. Although a local extension in time may be
necessary, particularly for a supercell to the west-southwest of
Midland, the threat should be too isolated for new weather watch
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1009 mb low across far
West Texas with a moist airmass in place southeast of the low.
Surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F with an axis of moderate
instability located from just south of Midland southeastward into
the southern Texas Hill Country. Thunderstorms that are ongoing in
west-central Texas are located along the northern edge of the
stronger instability. In addition, the Midland WSR-88D VWP has 0-6
km shear near 80 kt with a curved hodograph. For this reason, a
severe threat, specifically associated with a supercell near I-20 to
the west-southwest of Midland, should continue across west-central
Texas for several more hours. Supercells will have potential for
wind damage, large hail and perhaps a tornado.
However, the severe threat had become more isolated in the last
hour. This trend may continue as surface temperatures decrease
across the region, and weather watch issuance is not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34640523 34110590 32770616 31840619 31100598 30430500
30330430 30980314 32940319 33900332 34770382 34860467