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Mesoscale Discussion 183
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020

   Areas affected...southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151946Z - 152115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Stronger storms are likely to develop into Brewster and
   Presidio counties later this afternoon.  Large to possibly very
   large hail is the primary severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows the initial glaciation
   with developing convection over northern Chihuahua.  Surface
   analysis places a wave stationary front draped across the Rio Grande
   Valley with 80s temperatures located south of the boundary over far
   southwest TX.  To the north of the boundary, cooler temperatures are
   in the 60s.  

   Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level disturbance moving northeast
   towards the region from the Sierra Madre Occidentals.  Ascent
   associated with this feature coupled with a gradual erosion of a
   capping inversion, will promote initial isolated storm development
   as early as the 20-22z period.  Additional storms are forecast in
   the 22-00z period with a gradual increase in storm coverage as
   storms coincidentally grow upscale.  Large to very large hail will
   be possible if a robust supercell or two develops.  The risk will
   transition to a wind risk in tandem with the expected upscale

   ..Smith/Grams.. 03/15/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29350438 30450380 30790256 30460191 29730185 28760293

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