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Mesoscale Discussion 186
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0186
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0912 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020

   Areas affected...The southern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions
   of the southern Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...

   Valid 171412Z - 171545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity posing mainly a risk for occasional
   severe hail probably will continue into early afternoon across parts
   of the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous ongoing thunderstorm development near/west of
   Lubbock and Plainview appears largely supported by lift and
   destabilization associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
   advection, in advance of a low-amplitude short wave impulse emerging
   from large-scale troughing centered near the Pacific coast.  This is
   occurring above/to the cool side of a surface warm frontal zone, but
   elevated moisture return appears to have contributed to moderately
   large CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg) in the presence of steep
   mid-level lapse rates.  Given at least modest deep-layer shear
   within 25-30 kt southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow, the
   environment is at least marginally sufficient for elevated
   supercells accompanied by the risk for severe hail.

   Into the 17-19Z time frame, as the mid-level wave continues to cross
   northwest Mexico and approach Southwest Texas, large-scale forcing
   for ascent appears likely to remain focused across the southern
   Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of the southern high Plains. 
   Gradually, this may lead to an expanding cluster of thunderstorms. 
   Before activity becomes increasingly widespread, initial storm
   development probably will continue to be accompanied by at least
   some risk for severe hail.  The greatest risk for hail will probably
   be maintained on the southern periphery of the expanding convective
   activity, roughly near/southwest through southeast of Lubbock, which
   appears to coincide with the northern edge of the warmer and more
   strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.

   ..Kerr.. 03/17/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35750287 35840149 35250031 34009969 32960044 32830130
               33260238 33410324 35000330 35750287 

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