|Mesoscale Discussion 186|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Areas affected...The southern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions
of the southern Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...
Valid 171412Z - 171545Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity posing mainly a risk for occasional
severe hail probably will continue into early afternoon across parts
of the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains.
DISCUSSION...Vigorous ongoing thunderstorm development near/west of
Lubbock and Plainview appears largely supported by lift and
destabilization associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, in advance of a low-amplitude short wave impulse emerging
from large-scale troughing centered near the Pacific coast. This is
occurring above/to the cool side of a surface warm frontal zone, but
elevated moisture return appears to have contributed to moderately
large CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg) in the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates. Given at least modest deep-layer shear
within 25-30 kt southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow, the
environment is at least marginally sufficient for elevated
supercells accompanied by the risk for severe hail.
Into the 17-19Z time frame, as the mid-level wave continues to cross
northwest Mexico and approach Southwest Texas, large-scale forcing
for ascent appears likely to remain focused across the southern
Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of the southern high Plains.
Gradually, this may lead to an expanding cluster of thunderstorms.
Before activity becomes increasingly widespread, initial storm
development probably will continue to be accompanied by at least
some risk for severe hail. The greatest risk for hail will probably
be maintained on the southern periphery of the expanding convective
activity, roughly near/southwest through southeast of Lubbock, which
appears to coincide with the northern edge of the warmer and more
strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35750287 35840149 35250031 34009969 32960044 32830130
33260238 33410324 35000330 35750287
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