|Mesoscale Discussion 187|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Areas affected...northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...
Valid 171649Z - 171815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51
SUMMARY...A cluster of elevated storms continues to move eastward
across northwest Texas with large hail as the primary severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent is overspreading portions of the
southern High Plains per mesoanlaysis and satellite imagery. Warm
air advection is resulting in elevated storms north of a slow-moving
warm front above a shallow low-level inversion including weak
convection/shower activity ahead of the current storm cluster. The
current storms have produced low-end severe hail and that appears
the primary threat going forward. However, a strong downdraft may
penetrate the shallow near-surface stable layer and result in a
marginally severe wind gust.
Storms are likely to continue moving eastward into the afternoon and
remain elevated. The warm front is slowly moving northward, but
clouds on either side of the boundary are inhibiting northward
progress. Surface-based storms are possible along/south of the warm
front this afternoon, and this area will continue to be monitored
for potential severe storm development.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33160067 33420166 33830211 34210201 34380155 34510104
34480002 34429954 34139935 33649949 33269966 33150001
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