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Mesoscale Discussion 187
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0187
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020

   Areas affected...northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...

   Valid 171649Z - 171815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51

   SUMMARY...A cluster of elevated storms continues to move eastward
   across northwest Texas with large hail as the primary severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent is overspreading portions of the
   southern High Plains per mesoanlaysis and satellite imagery. Warm
   air advection is resulting in elevated storms north of a slow-moving
   warm front above a shallow low-level inversion including weak
   convection/shower activity ahead of the current storm cluster. The
   current storms have produced low-end severe hail and that appears
   the primary threat going forward. However, a strong downdraft may
   penetrate the shallow near-surface stable layer and result in a
   marginally severe wind gust. 

   Storms are likely to continue moving eastward into the afternoon and
   remain elevated. The warm front is slowly moving northward, but
   clouds on either side of the boundary are inhibiting northward
   progress. Surface-based storms are possible along/south of the warm
   front this afternoon, and this area will continue to be monitored
   for potential severe storm development.

   ..Nauslar/Grams.. 03/17/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33160067 33420166 33830211 34210201 34380155 34510104
               34480002 34429954 34139935 33649949 33269966 33150001

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