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Mesoscale Discussion 187
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0187
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022

   Areas affected...central and eastern NY into portions of
   VT...NH...MA...CT and RI

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 250720Z - 251315Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour and
   reduced visibility is expected to develop over the next couple of
   hours and persist into the morning hours across parts of New York
   into southern New England.

   DISCUSSION...A compact but intense midlevel shortwave trough will
   continue to eject eastward from the Lake Michigan vicinity to the
   lower Great Lakes over the next several hours. As large-scale
   forcing overspreads the Northeast and a deepening surface low lifts
   northeast into western NY, snowfall will increase. Strong warm
   advection on 40-50 kt southwesterly flow from around 850-600 mb will
   quickly result in a deep, saturated thermodynamic vertical profile. 

   Increasing ascent through a dendritic growth zone around 2500-3000
   ft deep will aid in heavy snowfall rates around 1-2 inches per hour
   at times. The greatest potential for snowfall rates to exceed 1 inch
   per hour through 7 am ET appears to extend from central NY eastward
   into southern VT/NH and much of MA. This corridor will align with a
   band of increasing 700 mb frontogenesis, supporting higher snowfall
   rates at times through early morning.

   ..Leitman.. 02/25/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   41757164 41597261 41697397 41887530 42197645 42557708
               42947738 43567718 43917680 44587518 44757339 44297185
               43557092 43257079 42687050 42317066 42067089 41757164 

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