|Mesoscale Discussion 190|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020
Areas affected...West-central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53...
Valid 180048Z - 180245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53
SUMMARY...Wind damage and large hail threat is expected to continue
across parts of west-central Texas over the next few hours. The
threat may extend northeastward into far north-central Texas.
Eastern areas of the watch may also be affected after 03Z.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1010 mb low to the
east-northeast of Midland with an inverted surface trough extending
southward from the low into southwest Texas. Low-level moisture is
maximized to the east of the surface trough. Surface dewpoints in
the 60s F are contributing to moderate instability as is shown be
the RAP. MLCAPE is estimated to be from 1000 to 2000 J/kg across
most of the watch. In addition, the Fort Worth 00Z sounding and
WSR-88D VWP at San Anglo show 0-6 km shear of 45 to 55 kt. This
environment should support isolated large hail and wind damage with
the stronger cells. Storm coverage should be greatest in the
northern part of the watch where the severe threat appears to be
greatest. In spite of weak large-scale ascent, isolated storms could
also occur in the southern part of the watch. Wind damage and hail
would be the primary threats.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30460160 31109989 32949925 33229927 33299988 33120032
32260098 31180201 30460160
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