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Mesoscale Discussion 190
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0748 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2020

   Areas affected...West-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53...

   Valid 180048Z - 180245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53

   SUMMARY...Wind damage and large hail threat is expected to continue
   across parts of west-central Texas over the next few hours. The
   threat may extend northeastward into far north-central Texas.
   Eastern areas of the watch may also be affected after 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1010 mb low to the
   east-northeast of Midland with an inverted surface trough extending
   southward from the low into southwest Texas. Low-level moisture is
   maximized to the east of the surface trough. Surface dewpoints in
   the 60s F are contributing to moderate instability as is shown be
   the RAP. MLCAPE is estimated to be from 1000 to 2000 J/kg across
   most of the watch. In addition, the Fort Worth 00Z sounding and
   WSR-88D VWP at San Anglo show 0-6 km shear of 45 to 55 kt. This
   environment should support isolated large hail and wind damage with
   the stronger cells. Storm coverage should be greatest in the
   northern part of the watch where the severe threat appears to be
   greatest. In spite of weak large-scale ascent, isolated storms could
   also occur in the southern part of the watch. Wind damage and hail
   would be the primary threats.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/18/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30460160 31109989 32949925 33229927 33299988 33120032
               32260098 31180201 30460160 

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