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Mesoscale Discussion 191
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MD 191 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Areas affected...Far southeast Texas to southern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051816Z - 052015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms across southern Louisiana will
   continue to pose a severe hail risk through the early afternoon
   hours. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited to
   preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and just
   ahead of an outflow boundary across southern LA. Several reports of
   severe hail (including at least one report of 2 inch hail) have been
   noted with this activity over the past hour or so. The convective
   environment is obviously supportive of a severe hail threat, likely
   owing to ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE with around 30-40 knots of effective bulk
   shear, and should remain so through early afternoon as storms
   approach the Gulf coast. However, storm longevity has been limited
   thus far based on MRMS echo top and VIL imagery. This is likely due
   to a combination of mean storm motions along the undercutting
   outflow boundary resulting in destructive storm interactions and
   somewhat rapid displacement to the cool side of the boundary. Storms
   developing ahead of the outflow may see slightly longer longevity
   and pose a more prolonged hail risk. 

   Regardless, the severe threat should wane by mid/late afternoon as
   the boundary reaches the Gulf Coast, and the limited
   spatial/temporal duration of the threat limits confidence in the
   need for a watch. To the west into southeast TX, convective
   initiation appears less probable in the short term based on
   satellite trends -  likely due to weaker low-level confluence along
   the boundary. However, the thermodynamic environment is
   comparatively better than southern LA with lifted indices
   approaching -10 C. A conditional severe hail/wind risk may
   materialize if initiation along the boundary can occur.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 03/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29679348 29659388 29599411 29509433 29489447 29549457
               29749477 29949483 30129479 30249463 30259413 30409361
               30629294 30849222 30909082 30729045 30509000 30168965
               29738958 29378968 29119000 28999041 29039086 29229121
               29379137 29469152 29459178 29479208 29459227 29589263
               29669310 29679348 

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