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Mesoscale Discussion 195
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MD 195 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

   Areas affected...Far eastern Georgia into South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061841Z - 062045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strengthening thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind and
   hail threat across parts of far eastern Georgia into portions of
   South Carolina over the next several hours. This threat is expected
   to remain sufficiently limited to negate the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Shallow convection across central GA has shown signs of
   intensification over the past 30-60 minutes based on lightning and
   cloud-top temperature trends. This is likely in response to gradual
   destabilization across the region as temperatures warm into the low
   to mid 70s to the south of a lingering surface trough/frontal
   boundary. Low-level warming appears to be somewhat faster than
   depicted by recent guidance, suggesting that the downstream
   environment is becoming increasingly favorable for sustained
   convection. Although low-level winds are fairly meager based on
   regional VWP and ACAR observations, 30-40 knot winds above 3 km
   should elongate hodographs sufficiently to support organized
   convection. Semi-discrete cells and clusters appear most probable
   given the unfocused forcing for ascent under the based of a
   mid-level trough, and should pose a threat for severe hail (most
   likely between 1.0 to 1.5 inches) and damaging winds - especially by
   late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be greatest. The
   nebulous forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty onto overall
   storm coverage, which is supported by recent CAMs. Because of this,
   the spatial threat should remain focused to far eastern GA into
   southern/eastern SC. Watch issuance is not anticipated given this
   limitation.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 03/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32258067 32258140 32418187 32788215 33548209 33978157
               34378021 34247936 33837890 33397902 33147910 32887945
               32398028 32258067 

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