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Mesoscale Discussion 196
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1042 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071642Z - 072045Z

   SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates above 1 inch/hour
   will increase through early afternoon across parts of northeast
   Colorado into southwest Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, surface observations across
   northeast CO have shown a steady reduction in visibility due to
   falling snow as low-level temperatures fall below freezing and allow
   a p-type transition to mainly snow. This activity is largely being
   driven by a corridor of focused ascent within a warm advection
   regime between roughly 850-650 mb to the north of a meandering
   vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor and regional radar
   imagery). Broad ascent within a mid-level deformation zone draped
   over the region should not only augment local ascent, but also
   prolong the duration of precipitation through the afternoon/evening.
   This should foster a swath of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall
   rates between 1-2 inches/hour. Furthermore, upstream lightning and
   regional 12 UTC soundings indicated mid-level lapse rates are
   sufficiently steep for a continuation of weak convection across
   parts of CO/NE, which may lead to brief bursts of heavier snowfall.
   Latest high-res guidance suggests the onset of heavier snowfall
   rates is probable during the 18-20 UTC period, which seems
   reasonable based on the aforementioned observed trends.

   ..Moore.. 03/07/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40130357 40920323 41110300 41530223 41590196 41590167
               41450139 41210129 40850163 40680191 40450233 40210263
               39930292 39860306 39840320 39930352 40130357 

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