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Mesoscale Discussion 196
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MD 196 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

   Areas affected...Far northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

   Valid 182348Z - 190145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

   SUMMARY...Developing supercells across far northwest Texas and
   southwest Oklahoma will continue to organize and pose a threat for
   severe hail, wind, and possibly a tornado, over the next one to two
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar imagery show splitting
   supercells ongoing across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.
   Recent surface observations and radar imagery from KFDR show a weak
   warm frontal boundary propagating to the west towards the southwest
   TX/OK border. As right moving supercell motions become more
   east/northeasterly they will likely cross over this warm frontal
   boundary within the next one to two hours. As this happens, these
   storms will encounter richer boundary layer moisture (dewpoints in
   the upper 60s) as well as backed surface winds that will likely
   enhance low level helicity and promote greater storm organization
   and strength. In turn, an increase in the severe wind and hail
   potential is expected along with an increasing tornado threat.

   Further to the west, scattered storms in the vicinity of Lubbock, TX
   have struggled to maintain strength and organization likely due to
   mid level inhibition and weaker forcing for ascent to the north.
   There is some uncertainty regarding the coverage and evolution of
   storms across the central TX Panhandle. Due to these considerations,
   the current watch may need to be expanded north.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 03/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34650060 34780033 34900010 34959994 34999966 35039943
               35099929 35119862 34989820 34809801 34549800 34219833
               34139876 34099899 34019909 33949927 33899947 33869966
               33779993 33690019 33690037 33470115 33340179 33400195
               33460214 33630216 33880207 34050192 34240155 34370124
               34530089 34650060 

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