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Mesoscale Discussion 198
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0198
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0934 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

   Areas affected...parts of north TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

   Valid 190234Z - 190330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado potential over the next 2 hours will likely focus
   with the discrete supercell ahead of the small bowing segment
   located farther west.  Marshall/Grayson counties may eventually need
   a watch extension-in-area (EXA).

   DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell with a history of brief tornadoes
   will likely continue to and east of the I-35 corridor and eventually
   reach the Red River vicinity between 1030pm-1130pm.  The wind
   profile per KFWS has shown the enlargement of the low-level
   hodograph per recent RAP model sounding forecasts.  With moderate
   buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 0-1km SRH between 200-300 m2/s2, it
   seems plausible the discrete supercell will continue uninhibited
   towards the east-northeast.  CINH should only slowly increase during
   the next few hours with the rate of CINH increase limited by
   mid-upper 60s F dewpoints within the inflow of the supercell.

   ..Smith.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33309810 33999676 33979644 33839630 33569637 33119789
               33309810 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2020
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