|Mesoscale Discussion 198|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020
Areas affected...parts of north TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...
Valid 190234Z - 190330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado potential over the next 2 hours will likely focus
with the discrete supercell ahead of the small bowing segment
located farther west. Marshall/Grayson counties may eventually need
a watch extension-in-area (EXA).
DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell with a history of brief tornadoes
will likely continue to and east of the I-35 corridor and eventually
reach the Red River vicinity between 1030pm-1130pm. The wind
profile per KFWS has shown the enlargement of the low-level
hodograph per recent RAP model sounding forecasts. With moderate
buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 0-1km SRH between 200-300 m2/s2, it
seems plausible the discrete supercell will continue uninhibited
towards the east-northeast. CINH should only slowly increase during
the next few hours with the rate of CINH increase limited by
mid-upper 60s F dewpoints within the inflow of the supercell.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33309810 33999676 33979644 33839630 33569637 33119789
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