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Mesoscale Discussion 201
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0201
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...parts of southern and central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190823Z - 191030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Local risk for a strong wind gust or two is apparent, but
   at this time WW is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection continues to move northeastward
   across north Texas and adjacent southwestern Oklahoma at this time,
   with a bowing segment now exiting eastern Comanche County within the
   broader area of precipitation.  With an axis of 1000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE indicated per RUC objective analyses, expect this
   bowing segment to continue spreading northeastward, eventually
   into/across southern parts of the Oklahoma City metro area.

   Though amply strong low-level flow is indicated by the KTLX VWP,
   suggestive of maintenance of organized storms and attendant risk for
   strong wind gusts, a slightly stable boundary layer -- given
   persistent, slightly rain-cooled air -- remains in place across the
   area, which may largely temper potential for more widespread
   severe-level wind gusts.  Still, local risk for strong wind gusts is
   apparent -- though likely to remain below coverage levels consistent
   with WW consideration.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34319766 34369846 35109842 35789725 35609641 34649652
               34259714 34319766 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2020
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