Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020
Areas affected...parts of southern and central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190823Z - 191030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Local risk for a strong wind gust or two is apparent, but
at this time WW is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection continues to move northeastward
across north Texas and adjacent southwestern Oklahoma at this time,
with a bowing segment now exiting eastern Comanche County within the
broader area of precipitation. With an axis of 1000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE indicated per RUC objective analyses, expect this
bowing segment to continue spreading northeastward, eventually
into/across southern parts of the Oklahoma City metro area.
Though amply strong low-level flow is indicated by the KTLX VWP,
suggestive of maintenance of organized storms and attendant risk for
strong wind gusts, a slightly stable boundary layer -- given
persistent, slightly rain-cooled air -- remains in place across the
area, which may largely temper potential for more widespread
severe-level wind gusts. Still, local risk for strong wind gusts is
apparent -- though likely to remain below coverage levels consistent
with WW consideration.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34319766 34369846 35109842 35789725 35609641 34649652