Mesoscale Discussion 0205
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

   Areas affected...parts of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081849Z - 082045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two should
   slowly increase through the afternoon. Confidence in storm evolution
   is low, but the increase in severe risk may warrant weather watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1845 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
   showed a complex convective regime across parts of the lower MS
   valley and central Gulf Coast. A cluster of mostly elevated
   thunderstorms residing along a composite outflow/warm front across
   southern MS into southwest AL has shown occasional strengthening
   early this afternoon. A relatively broad warm sector to the south of
   the outflow has allowed for sporadic discrete thunderstorm
   initiation across southern LA within the last hour. With limited
   inhibition and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from the 18z LIX
   sounding/SPC mesoanalysis, thunderstorms could gradually intensify
   within the warm sector. Deep-layer shear of 50+ kt would support
   storm organization into a supercells or short linear segments
   capable of damaging gusts. Large low-level hodograph curvature,
   especially near the warm front/outflow farther east, may also
   support a risk for a tornado or two if more persistent supercells
   are able to organize.

   Confidence in overall convective evolution is low given relatively
   broad cloud cover from ongoing storms and poor mid-level lapse
   rates. Storms may take some time to organize and numerous storm
   interactions are expected within the weakly capped/forced air mass.
   Experimental WOFS guidance does show a gradual increase in severe
   probabilities with time, assuming the ongoing convection is able to
   sustain itself. Given the broadly favorable environment and
   potential for increasing severe risk, a weather watch is possible in
   the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29259082 29639250 29749312 29959324 30899232 31349178
               31639024 31788928 31988846 31928826 31698788 30968777
               30678781 30408787 30268790 30168835 29668942 29378997
               29259068 29259082