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Mesoscale Discussion 205
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0205
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...south-central Nebraska and far northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191901Z - 192100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is intensifying near a frontal boundary across
   the region.  Large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are the
   primary threat.  A WW is not anticipated, however, given the
   isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Cooling aloft associated with an advancing vort max
   across east-west-central Kansas and sustained surface heating was
   contributing to deepening, lightning-producing convection near a
   surface boundary extending from near GLD to HSI.  These storms are
   in an environment characterized by modest instability (250-1000 J/kg
   MUCAPE) and appreciable deep shear (35-40 kts), with storm motion
   vectors largely perpendicular to the initiating surface bounday. 
   This should result in a tendency for most convection to be undercut,
   though 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates may support isolated instances
   of large hail in the strongest cells.  Any threat for surface wind
   gusts or updraft rotation may occur if storms interact favorably
   with the initiating boundary, though this potential appears to be
   quite low at this time.  These storms should continue to spread
   north-northeast with time, with the already limited severe risk
   persisting through the next few hours.

   Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not

   ..Cook/Dial.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40789851 40799842 40839762 40629734 40359739 40089763
               40029768 39669925 39120137 39150183 39340208 39700200
               39980145 40030107 40110093 40489969 40789851 

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