Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 206
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 206 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...southwestern Iowa...northwestern
   Missouri...northeastern Kansas...and southeastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191941Z - 192215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Upstream destabilization and convective activity should
   result in an increasing severe risk - especially after about 4pm
   local time or so in Kansas/Nebraska portions of the discussion area.
    A WW is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...The airmass across the discussion area has destabilized
   and recovered from morning precipitation owing to 30-40 kt 850 flow
   and cooling aloft associated with an approaching, vigorous trough
   across west-central Kansas.  Meanwhile, a few thunderstorms have
   developed very near a slow-moving surface boundary across
   Saline/Fillmore counties in Nebraska.  Hail is possible with these
   storms, although cross-boundary storm motions suggest that this
   convection will likely become elevated atop the front soon.

   Models/CAMs and observations suggest that open-warm-sector
   initiation will commence - most likely after around 4pm local time.
   Though low-level flow is somewhat veered, strong vertical shear
   throughout the troposphere and long hodographs (resulting from
   strong mid- and upper-level flow) will result in a few quickly
   moving supercells capable of all modes of severe weather. 
   Significant hail is possible owing to 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates and
   potentially favorable (cellular) mode, while a few tornadoes may
   also develop given low-level shear values (150-200m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).
   This threat will likely persist through the evening hours.

   ..Cook/Dial.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40829770 41219693 41509534 41629407 41539270 41119196
               40369187 39749211 39389299 39329417 38889547 39269697
               39429762 40079791 40829770 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: March 19, 2020
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities