|Mesoscale Discussion 206|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020
Areas affected...southwestern Iowa...northwestern
Missouri...northeastern Kansas...and southeastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 191941Z - 192215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Upstream destabilization and convective activity should
result in an increasing severe risk - especially after about 4pm
local time or so in Kansas/Nebraska portions of the discussion area.
A WW is being considered.
DISCUSSION...The airmass across the discussion area has destabilized
and recovered from morning precipitation owing to 30-40 kt 850 flow
and cooling aloft associated with an approaching, vigorous trough
across west-central Kansas. Meanwhile, a few thunderstorms have
developed very near a slow-moving surface boundary across
Saline/Fillmore counties in Nebraska. Hail is possible with these
storms, although cross-boundary storm motions suggest that this
convection will likely become elevated atop the front soon.
Models/CAMs and observations suggest that open-warm-sector
initiation will commence - most likely after around 4pm local time.
Though low-level flow is somewhat veered, strong vertical shear
throughout the troposphere and long hodographs (resulting from
strong mid- and upper-level flow) will result in a few quickly
moving supercells capable of all modes of severe weather.
Significant hail is possible owing to 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates and
potentially favorable (cellular) mode, while a few tornadoes may
also develop given low-level shear values (150-200m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).
This threat will likely persist through the evening hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40829770 41219693 41509534 41629407 41539270 41119196
40369187 39749211 39389299 39329417 38889547 39269697
39429762 40079791 40829770
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