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Mesoscale Discussion 206
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0241 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...southwestern Iowa...northwestern
   Missouri...northeastern Kansas...and southeastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191941Z - 192215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Upstream destabilization and convective activity should
   result in an increasing severe risk - especially after about 4pm
   local time or so in Kansas/Nebraska portions of the discussion area.
    A WW is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...The airmass across the discussion area has destabilized
   and recovered from morning precipitation owing to 30-40 kt 850 flow
   and cooling aloft associated with an approaching, vigorous trough
   across west-central Kansas.  Meanwhile, a few thunderstorms have
   developed very near a slow-moving surface boundary across
   Saline/Fillmore counties in Nebraska.  Hail is possible with these
   storms, although cross-boundary storm motions suggest that this
   convection will likely become elevated atop the front soon.

   Models/CAMs and observations suggest that open-warm-sector
   initiation will commence - most likely after around 4pm local time.
   Though low-level flow is somewhat veered, strong vertical shear
   throughout the troposphere and long hodographs (resulting from
   strong mid- and upper-level flow) will result in a few quickly
   moving supercells capable of all modes of severe weather. 
   Significant hail is possible owing to 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates and
   potentially favorable (cellular) mode, while a few tornadoes may
   also develop given low-level shear values (150-200m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).
   This threat will likely persist through the evening hours.

   ..Cook/Dial.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40829770 41219693 41509534 41629407 41539270 41119196
               40369187 39749211 39389299 39329417 38889547 39269697
               39429762 40079791 40829770 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2020
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