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Mesoscale Discussion 207
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MD 207 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0207
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Missouri...southern
   Illinois...southern Indiana...western and northern Kentucky and
   southwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 192040Z - 192145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with sustained ongoing
   thunderstorm clusters appears likely to continue to increase as they
   develop into and across the lower Ohio Valley through 6-8 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of clusters of thunderstorms continue to
   advect east-northeastward across the Ozark Plateau vicinity, with
   the lead cluster in the process of pogressing across the Mississippi
   River into the lower Ohio Valley.  This activity is embedded within
   a strong deep-layer mean ambient wind field, including 50-60+ kt in
   the 850-700 mb layer, but still may be rooted within weak lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection, on the northwestern periphery of
   prominent mid-level ridging.  However, latest surface observations
   and objective analysis appears to be indicating at least somewhat
   better boundary-layer destabilization (compared to across the Ozark
   Plateau) roughly along the Ohio River, along a northward advancing
   warm front.  As the upstream storms spread into this region through
   the 00-02Z time frame, there appears potential for more substantive
   further convective intensification and organization.  Aided by
   stronger near surface vertical shear along the frontal zone, this
   may finally be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
   surface gusts and tornadoes, particularly with developing embedded
   mesovortices.

   ..Kerr/Dial.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
   SGF...

   LAT...LON   37259117 37539015 38328893 38788793 39098646 39218500
               38768385 37618541 36878795 36338980 36349155 37259117 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2020
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