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Mesoscale Discussion 208
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0516 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...southwest and southern Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...

   Valid 192216Z - 192345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.

   SUMMARY...A conditional risk for a tornado will continue east across
   southern Indiana.  The wind fields are very supportive of low-level
   rotation but buoyancy and a messy storm mode are the current
   limiting factors.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates the northern portion of a
   destabilizing warm sector has infiltrated the lower OH Valley into
   parts of southern IN.  22z surface observations from Evansville and
   the greater Louisville area indicate temperatures are in the lower
   70s F with lower 60s dewpoints.  Modifying RAP soundings for current
   surface observations suggests 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE exists downstream
   of the ongoing activity about to move into southwest IN.  The KVWX
   VAD shows a very strong low-level wind profile (400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH)
   and the KLVX VAD will likely intensify over the next 2 hours similar
   to the afternoon strengthening sampled by KVWX.  The current
   expectation is for the conditional severe risk (including the
   possibility for a tornado) will move across the I-64 corridor early
   this evening.  Damaging gusts and a tornado are possible with the
   more long-lived and stronger circulations.

   ..Smith.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38928747 39048649 38718630 38328652 37988797 38268798

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