|Mesoscale Discussion 208|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020
Areas affected...southwest and southern Indiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...
Valid 192216Z - 192345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.
SUMMARY...A conditional risk for a tornado will continue east across
southern Indiana. The wind fields are very supportive of low-level
rotation but buoyancy and a messy storm mode are the current
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates the northern portion of a
destabilizing warm sector has infiltrated the lower OH Valley into
parts of southern IN. 22z surface observations from Evansville and
the greater Louisville area indicate temperatures are in the lower
70s F with lower 60s dewpoints. Modifying RAP soundings for current
surface observations suggests 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE exists downstream
of the ongoing activity about to move into southwest IN. The KVWX
VAD shows a very strong low-level wind profile (400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH)
and the KLVX VAD will likely intensify over the next 2 hours similar
to the afternoon strengthening sampled by KVWX. The current
expectation is for the conditional severe risk (including the
possibility for a tornado) will move across the I-64 corridor early
this evening. Damaging gusts and a tornado are possible with the
more long-lived and stronger circulations.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38928747 39048649 38718630 38328652 37988797 38268798
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