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Mesoscale Discussion 211
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0211
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern OK...west-central into north-central AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

   Valid 192306Z - 200030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

   SUMMARY...A risk for a tornado or two will likely continue through
   the early evening near the OK/AR border northeast into north-central

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a broken band of thunderstorms from
   northeast TX into northwest AR.  Several discrete updrafts have
   formed ahead of the line within the warm sector.  Surface analysis
   indicates west-central/north-central AR are located on the northern
   part of the more appreciable low-level moisture reservoir (64-66 F
   dewpoints).  Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s and
   moderate buoyancy is estimated by RAP forecast soundings (1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE).  The strong flow fields (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) will
   support episodic updraft rotation.  A tornado or two will remain
   possible with the stronger and more persistent low-level
   mesocyclones.  An isolated threat for damaging gusts may also
   accompany the more intense thunderstorms.

   ..Smith.. 03/19/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34909494 36249301 36229250 35739231 34439431 34409460
               34609493 34909494 

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