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Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020
Areas affected...far eastern OK...west-central into north-central AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...
Valid 192306Z - 200030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.
SUMMARY...A risk for a tornado or two will likely continue through
the early evening near the OK/AR border northeast into north-central
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a broken band of thunderstorms from
northeast TX into northwest AR. Several discrete updrafts have
formed ahead of the line within the warm sector. Surface analysis
indicates west-central/north-central AR are located on the northern
part of the more appreciable low-level moisture reservoir (64-66 F
dewpoints). Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s and
moderate buoyancy is estimated by RAP forecast soundings (1500 J/kg
MLCAPE). The strong flow fields (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) will
support episodic updraft rotation. A tornado or two will remain
possible with the stronger and more persistent low-level
mesocyclones. An isolated threat for damaging gusts may also
accompany the more intense thunderstorms.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34909494 36249301 36229250 35739231 34439431 34409460
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