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Mesoscale Discussion 213
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0213
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

   Areas affected...North FL into extreme southeast GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092057Z - 092300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist through late afternoon,
   though the threat should become increasingly isolated with time.

   DISCUSSION...A prefrontal convective band is ongoing from north FL
   into extreme southeast GA late this afternoon. In general, storms
   have gradually become less organized with time, possibly due to weak
   surface convergence ahead of the cold front and relatively limited
   large-scale ascent. However, buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and
   deep-layer flow/shear (effective shear of 50-60 kt) are still
   favorable for organized convection, and a couple stronger
   cells/clusters cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the
   afternoon. Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado will
   continue to be the main hazards, though with the threat expected to
   become increasingly isolated with time, new watch issuance after the
   4 PM EST expiration of WW 34 is considered unlikely.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29888392 30668248 31018152 30618126 30198124 29898148
               29618222 29498272 29478308 29528357 29888392 

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