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Mesoscale Discussion 0214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020
Areas affected...north-central into northeast AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...
Valid 200136Z - 200330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest tornado risk through late evening will likely
focus from north-central AR into northeast AR.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a strong supercell located in
north-central AR as of 830pm CDT. Analysis of KLZK and KNQA VAD
data indicates the wind profile is strengthening with the low-level
hodograph enlarging. The enlarging of the low-level hodograph is
especially evident over the past 1-2 hours at Memphis with 0-1km SRH
increasing from 400 to 500 m2/s2. With the cluster of storms over
north-central AR moving northeast relatively unimpeded on the
northern periphery of the weakly buoyant/moist sector (500 J/kg
MLCAPE from the 00z Little Rock sounding), expecting some continued
risk for a tornado or two for the next several hours as this storm
cluster moves to the northeast.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35619293 36329139 36189106 35899105 35289269 35339302
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