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Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020
Areas affected...Northern Missouri and southern Iowa
Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...
Valid 200140Z - 200315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms along the MO/IA border will continue
to pose a hail and tornado threat in the near term, but these
threats will diminish by 11 PM.
DISCUSSION...Recent SPC RAP Mesoanalysis suggests that MLCAPE is
decreasing and MLCIN is increasing with the loss of daytime heating
across northern MO and southern IA. This trend will continue through
the evening and will hinder widespread storm intensification and
coverage. Surface observations show the strongest storms propagating
to the east along a cold front. As these storms become displaced to
the north to the cool side of the boundary the risk for tornadoes
will decrease, though a hail threat will remain. If storms can
remain rooted along the boundary, ambient environmental vorticity
along the cold front and 100-150 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE will continue
to foster the threat for a tornado or two. Considering the overall
diminishing threat, no downstream watch is anticipated.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40169368 40039428 40029460 40069475 40159490 40279501
40469511 40689512 40949506 41169487 41259462 41289442
41389415 41519383 41599364 41679337 41799223 41769153
41639130 41339119 40999143 40869181 40579254 40409302
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