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Mesoscale Discussion 215
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0215
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0840 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Missouri and southern Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

   Valid 200140Z - 200315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms along the MO/IA border will continue
   to pose a hail and tornado threat in the near term, but these
   threats will diminish by 11 PM.

   DISCUSSION...Recent SPC RAP Mesoanalysis suggests that MLCAPE is
   decreasing and MLCIN is increasing with the loss of daytime heating
   across northern MO and southern IA. This trend will continue through
   the evening and will hinder widespread storm intensification and
   coverage. Surface observations show the strongest storms propagating
   to the east along a cold front. As these storms become displaced to
   the north to the cool side of the boundary the risk for tornadoes
   will decrease, though a hail threat will remain. If storms can
   remain rooted along the boundary, ambient environmental vorticity
   along the cold front and 100-150 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE will continue
   to foster the threat for a tornado or two. Considering the overall
   diminishing threat, no downstream watch is anticipated.

   ..Moore/Squitieri.. 03/20/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40169368 40039428 40029460 40069475 40159490 40279501
               40469511 40689512 40949506 41169487 41259462 41289442
               41389415 41519383 41599364 41679337 41799223 41769153
               41639130 41339119 40999143 40869181 40579254 40409302

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