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Mesoscale Discussion 219
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0219
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

   Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast kansas and
   western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 132054Z - 132300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected late this
   afternoon along a warm-frontal corridor across northern KS and
   western MO. Supercells capable of hazards are likely. A WW will
   likely be needed late this afternoon or early this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional satellite showed a steadily
   deepening cumulus field along a sharpening warm-frontal zone across
   parts of northern KS and western MO. Towering cumulus was also noted
   along a trailing dryline into parts of southeastern KS.  Water-vapor
   imagery shows large-scale ascent from a passing shortwave-trough
   will move overhead late this afternoon and continue through the
   evening. With strong low-level moisture advection ongoing, the air
   mass along and south of the front should continue to destabilize as
   ascent and diurnal heating work to remove inhibition. Surface
   dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F should support 1500-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE with 40-50 kt of effective shear. Storm organization
   into supercells appears likely. 

   Experimental WOFS and other Hi-res guidance suggest storm
   development may be delayed until more robust ascent (currently
   depicted over eastern CO/western KS) arrives late this afternoon
   into the early evening hours. With 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22
   C and low/mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km, severe hail (some 2+
   inches) and damaging gusts appear likely with the strongest storms.
   Initially the tornado threat is more uncertain given the relatively
   modest boundary-layer moisture and storm motions potentially
   crossing the front. However, backed surface winds and relatively
   large forecast ESRH of 200-400 m2/s2 along the warm front may
   support a risk for a couple tornadoes with the more organized
   supercells. The tornado threat should increase into the evening as
   dewpoint spreads decrease and hodographs enlarge coincident with
   enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet.

   Given the increasingly favorable environment for severe storms, a
   weather watch will be needed sometime this afternoon. Exact timing
   may be somewhat uncertain, but current projections suggest storm
   initiation is possible by 22-23z.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 03/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38049610 38499728 38729809 38889839 39319849 39769806
               40149717 40209671 40239591 40209526 40059456 39719332
               39129257 38799264 38319322 38059511 38049610 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2024
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