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Mesoscale Discussion 219
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0219
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1034 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central and south texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211534Z - 211730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated instances of hail are possible with elevated
   convection drifting northward through the discussion area this
   morning.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity, though
   introduction of low probabilities for severe hail are being
   considered for the 1630Z Day 1 convective outlook.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated thunderstorms has materialized
   over the past hour or so near/south of SAT.  One cell near
   Karnes/Wilson/Atascosa counties was exhibiting left-moving behavior,
   with radar indications of hail in the vicinity.  These storms were
   in a marginally unstable environment amidst about 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
   rooted at around/just above 700 hPa, with steep mid-level lapse
   rates (around 7-7.5 deg C/km) supporting ongoing updrafts.  Shear in
   the cloud-bearing layer was sufficient for organization and updraft
   rotation, however, which is likely supporting the ongoing, yet
   isolated hail risk.

   Over time, models/CAMs depict that northward movement of this
   cluster will continue across the discussion area, with some
   development northwest of ongoing convection possible.  The greatest
   threat with this activity should be isolated 1" hail stones as
   surface-based instability is expected to remain well displaced from
   the region containing most convection.  The isolated nature of this
   threat precludes WW issuance, although the introduction of Marginal
   severe probabilities for hail are being considered for the 1630Z Day
   1 Convective Outlook.

   ..Cook/Thompson.. 03/21/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28709983 29360022 29730049 30270073 30740050 30819946
               30549807 30119693 29849620 29449597 29049614 28889620
               28399678 27699707 27219751 27149808 27399863 27689916
               28019966 28709983 

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