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Mesoscale Discussion 222
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MD 222 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of central Maryland....southeastern
   Pennsylvania...northern New Jersey...southeastern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152340Z - 160145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A narrow line of storms may be accompanied by some risk
   for potentially damaging wind gusts through about 8-9 PM EDT across
   the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region, mainly west and northwest of
   the Greater Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.

   DISCUSSION...An evolving narrow line of generally low-topped
   thunderstorm activity appears to have formed within lee surface
   troughing, in response to an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for
   ascent and and lower/mid tropospheric cooling spreading to the east
   of the Allegheny mountains.  The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that
   a secondary surface low may be in the process of forming across the
   northern Mid Atlantic coast region into southern New England by this
   evening.

   Peak boundary layer CAPE appears limited to around 500 J/kg or so,
   and should begin waning with the onset of radiational surface
   cooling during the next couple of hours.  So current vigorous
   convective intensities are not anticipated to be particularly
   long-lived.  However, strongly sheared, 40-50 kt mean southwesterly
   flow in the convective layer could still support some increase in
   potential for damaging convective gusts through 00-01Z, before
   storms begin to weaken.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40457579 41477391 41337356 40917368 40207481 39467617
               39347667 39497699 39707688 40457579 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2019
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